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By Dotun Oladipupo
In his inaugural address, the newly sworn in president of Nigeria affirms the public knowledge that provisions for fuel subsidy ends by the end of June and that “subsidy is gone”, the market reacted and responded with immediacy and fuel queues are back.
In 2012, the then president Goodluck Jonathan announced the removal of subsidy, a loud social disorder followed it and the infamous occupy Nigeria subsidy protests went on for days until the government of the day backed down and returned to status quo.
Behind the social unrest that followed Jonathan’s announcement of subsidy removal were familiar faces and sponsors who mobilized the Lagos Ibadan press corridor to give the protests strength and traction that led to the retraction of the action. Interestingly, leading the protests were the now elected president Bola Ahmed Tinubu as then opposition leader and many other familiar opposition faces including former president Buhari amongst others.
Like Tinubu, in his inaugural address, former president Buhari announced that subsidy is a fraud and that he will remove it. He was believable giving his perceived antecedent as a stern, disciplined retired general only for forces beyond his military strength and reputation to force him to hid behind ‘under recovery’ to continue paying subsidy in an era characterized by serial denials and back and forth on its removal or not, however the Buhari administration in his idan ways ensured that he persisted with subsidy up till a month after the expiration of his tenure having made budgetary provisions for it until the end of June thereby setting up his successor auspiciously; for politicians that serves him right reaping from his own political doing.
Nigerians across divides agreed that subsidy must give way, but majority of these Nigerians too lined up behind the then opposition on the streets in 2012 against removal of subsidy citing majorly lack of widespread consultation amongst many other reasons. Rightly or wrongly, before the announcement which many saw as too sudden and early in the new year.
The same Nigerians were majorly docile and conquered by the fear of former president Buhari over what he can or can’t do and has propensity to do or they lack a sponsor(s) who can mobilize people for protests and public dissent as well has the Lagos Ibadan press corridor in his becks and call.
The past stance of president Tinubu and his predecessor will definitely shore up a level of public distrust on the implementation of this policy, stakeholders will maliciously feast on this past insincerity and it will pose a daunting task ahead of the president like for a start, making the already build up queues disappear from the streets as soon as possible.
Moving forward, the president will need to galvanize public and stakeholders support for this policy and other future policies. He will need to use his rich networks and machineries this time around not to mobilize for a politically driven opposition protests but for public support for this very difficult task of subsidy removal; the public must key into it and be ready to endure the initial hardship it will bring.
He must also assure them of prudent investment in other social sectors that will ease the people’s way of life. The President, perhaps, need to start by admitting playing politics with the 2012 protests, because Nigerians would have moved past this ten years ago.
He will have to deal with it eight years after the one he made president, lacked the political will to remove it and having put it in his inaugural speech. It will hit hard on his credibility should he go back on his words, because in that speech, some saw confidence and others arrogance but both is a positive for a leader who will not be easily cowed to cave in to pressure seen and unseen.
Achieving this, he will perhaps have to borrow from former president Chief Olusegun Obasanjo who, went far searching for ministers in helping him stabilize the country after years of military ploughing. He will have to show some strengths against compensatory politics by not paying back political IOUs in the way of ministerial appointments. After all he is not inheriting a better country, rather he is inheriting a country headed for the rocks. So he needs all of the help to halt the downward trajectory.
Dotun Oladipupo writes from Idofa, Imeko Afon local government, Ogun state via dotunoladipupo@gmail.com