By Olamilekan Jaji
As Ogun State inches toward the 2027 general elections, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) appears outwardly united but internally fractured. Beneath the surface of endorsements and consensus arrangements lies a complex web of rivalries, regional calculations, and unresolved grievances that could shape — and possibly derail — the party’s electoral fortunes.
At the heart of the tension is the lingering cold war among three towering figures: incumbent governor Prince Dapo Abiodun, former governor Senator Ibikunle Amosun, and elder statesman Chief Olusegun Osoba. Though bound by party affiliation, their political relationship has been anything but harmonious. Years of rivalry, political betrayals, and competing loyalties have created a climate where cooperation is tactical rather than genuine. Within this triangle, revenge is not just a sentiment — it is a strategy quietly shaping alignments and decisions.
Adding another layer of uncertainty is the shifting position of the Ijebu political bloc. Historically influential, the Ijebu axis played a decisive role in the emergence of Governor Abiodun. However, current permutations suggest a growing sense of disillusionment. Outside the long-standing agitation for Ijebu State creation, the bloc appears politically stranded, with diminishing leverage in the APC’s evolving power structure. Should this dissatisfaction deepen, the Ijebus possess enough political weight to disrupt what might otherwise seem like a smooth APC succession plan.
Equally critical is the underestimated influence of former governors, particularly from Ogun Central. In Nigerian politics, ex-governors rarely fade into the background; they retain networks, loyalists, and the capacity to influence outcomes from behind the scenes. Any miscalculation by the APC leadership in managing these power brokers could trigger internal sabotage or silent resistance during the elections.
In Ogun West, demographic and political realities further complicate the equation. The Awori subgroup, with its significant population strength within Yewa, represents a decisive voting bloc whose loyalty cannot be taken for granted. Their support may hinge on specific political concessions — including the fate of the deputy governorship and legislative tickets. There are growing murmurs that if the Ogun West senatorial slot does not go to the sitting deputy governor, or if key figures like Hon. Akinosi are denied return tickets, the backlash could be severe. Historically, deputy governors in Ogun State have not been compensated with such political concessions, making current expectations both unprecedented and contentious.
The APC’s adoption of a consensus model that produced Senator Olalekan Adeola (popularly known as Yayi) as its governorship candidate may have temporarily quelled open dissent. However, this strategy is far from a one-size-fits-all solution. While it worked at the top of the ticket, its replication across other elective positions appears uncertain. The allocation of the Ogun East senatorial ticket to Governor Abiodun has already tilted the balance of power, leaving Ogun Central in a state of strategic limbo — a development that could breed further discontent.
The larger question is whether the APC can effectively manage these competing interests before they spiral out of control. Political history in Ogun State — and indeed across Nigeria — shows that internal party crises often prove more damaging than opposition threats. If unresolved, these fractures could lead to protest votes, defections, or passive resistance from within the party’s own ranks.
As 2027 approaches, the APC’s greatest challenge in Ogun may not be the opposition, but itself. Should the party fail to reconcile its internal divisions, balance regional interests, and rein in the ambitions of its key actors, it risks repeating history — a dramatic fall precipitated not by external defeat, but by internal disunity.